West African supply remains tight
Black-pod disease and ageing tree stock have cut Ghanaian and Ivorian output 18–22% over two years. Replanting cycles run 4–5 years; brands should not bank on near-term relief.
Indonesian and Ecuadorian supply is rising but quality grades vary and the substitution rate is constrained by cocoa-butter ratio.
§ KEY TAKEAWAYS
- 01Lock 6–12 month forward strip; spot exposure is unsustainable
- 02Re-formulate to 60% cocoa SKUs to absorb cost
- 03Cocoa-butter premium has widened — compound margins are tighter
- 04Single-origin claims defensible but charge for the premium
§ GLOSSARY
Technical jargon, acronyms and scientific terms used in this file — decoded.
- Cocoa terminal
- Futures contract on London (LIFFE) or New York (ICE) for physical-delivery cocoa beans; sets the global price reference.
- Black pod disease
- Fungal infection (Phytophthora) that destroys cocoa pods pre-harvest; primary driver of West African yield loss.
- Cocoa butter
- Fat fraction pressed from cocoa beans; defines chocolate mouthfeel and snap.
- Compound chocolate
- Chocolate using vegetable fat instead of cocoa butter; cheaper but lower melt quality.
- Single-origin
- Cocoa sourced from one country or estate; commands premium for flavour transparency.
